Bitcoin’s steep fall continued its dive on Monday, slipping below $94,000 and deepening a slide that has erased roughly a quarter of its value since October’s all-time high. The latest drop has unsettled a market that spent most of the year celebrating institutional adoption, political tailwinds, and record ETF inflows.
Despite that momentum, Bitcoin has now lost roughly $600 billion in market value since last month’s peak, a reminder of how quickly confidence fades when liquidity tightens and leverage unwinds.
Halving Cycle Anxiety Re-Emerges
One factor resurfacing across trading desks is Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle — a pattern many believed would fade as institutional money took over. Historically, prices have peaked 400–600 days after each halving, followed by deep corrections as miners offload inventory and speculative flows reverse.
With the most recent halving occurring in April 2024, Bitcoin’s October peak falls within the traditional window, and that timing has fed a sense of a“self-fulfilling prophecy” among traders. Analysts say some investors may be pre-emptively exiting positions to avoid reliving the steep drawdowns of past cycles, even though the market structure today is very different. Still, several research firms argue this decline doesn’t resemble the blow-off tops of prior eras. Instead, they see signs of consolidation — a reset driven by leverage flushes and macro uncertainty rather than the structural capitulation that marked earlier bear markets.
Leverage Unwinds and Fragile Liquidity
A wave of forced liquidations last month wiped out billions in leveraged positions, leaving the market vulnerable to further shocks. That liquidation event coincided with profit-taking among long-term holders and a sudden uptick in volatility tied to global trade tensions. The result has been an unusually fragile market: thin order books, hesitant buying, and a broad sense that momentum has stalled. Several analysts note that new buyer activity slowed dramatically after Oct. 10, a sign that institutions are becoming more selective and retail interest has cooled.
At the same time, a more hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve has shifted macro expectations. With the odds of a December rate cut falling sharply, risk assets across the board have lost steam — and crypto has been among the hardest hit.
Institutional Demand Isn’t Disappearing
Even with prices under pressure, institutional interest hasn’t disappeared. ETF flows remain mostly strong, signaling that long-term allocators aren’t stepping away. Large corporate buyers are still active as well, with one major holder adding more than 8,000 Bitcoin in the latest downturn.
Supporters argue that Bitcoin’s broader trajectory remains intact: regulatory clarity is improving, political support for digital assets is growing, and institutional participation is deeper than in any previous cycle. Those forces could limit the severity of this pullback — though not necessarily the volatility.
Looking Ahead
Traders are now watching two critical levels: $93,000, which some analysts warn could trigger another wave of liquidations, and the post-election lows near $80,000, a zone that could attract long-term buyers if reached. With macro uncertainty, a fragile technical setup, and fading rate-cut expectations, Bitcoin may remain volatile in the short term.
But many on Wall Street still see this as a cyclical reset within a multi-year institutional uptrend. Whether or not the traditional halving pattern repeats, the next catalysts — including clearer economic data, Fed guidance, and renewed ETF inflows — will determine how quickly Bitcoin can regain its footing.
